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2020 Tubaworld Hurricane Season Advisories (Live Season, LckyTUBA)
Overview This page shows all tropical cyclone advisories from the 2020 Tubaworld Hurricane season. Tropical cyclone advisories are issued in the afternoons daily by the LckyTUBA Weather Center for active cyclones, although advisories may be issued at other times in between the regular advisory times if the LTWC decides it would be necessary to do so. 2020 Advisories Archive Subtropical Storm Arthur Advisory #4 (January 5) Discussion #4 Arthur's unusually long lifespan in the Sousa Sea is coming to an end. The storm is accelerating northeast, and is quickly losing any deep convection due to cooler waters, and is analyzed to have reached its peak at around 1800Z on January 4, with winds of 70 mph and a pressure of 988 mbar. Arthur has since weakened, thus advisories on the system are being discontinued. The post-tropical remnant of Arthur is still expected to bring high winds to parts of Prosmia tomorrow, possibly gusting to near hurricane force. Interests in coastal Prosmia and Ottoland should still monitor the progress of this system. Intensity Forecast Initial...05/1200...50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12H...06/0000...40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24H...06/1200...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM Forecaster Tuba Subtropical Storm Arthur Advisory #3 (January 4) Discussion #3 Arthur really has been a frustrating storm to forecast, as it continues to strengthen despite increasingly unfavorable conditions. The initial intensity has been set to 60 kt, which is in consensus with recon estimates ranging from 57-63 knots. A dropsonde also recorded a surface pressure of 989 mbar. The models now unanimously forecast weakening, which is reflected in the intensity forecast. Arthur is recurving to the north-northeast, and is causing swells throughout the Sousa Sea. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the northern shore of the Sousa Sea, as Arthur is expected to cause gale-force winds in these locations regardless of whether it is still subtropical. Intensity Forecast Initial...04/1200...60 KT 12H...05/0000...55 KT 24H...05/1200...50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36H...06/0000...40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48H...06/1200...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM Forecaster Tuba Subtropical Storm Arthur Advisory #2 (January 3) Discussion #2 Arthur seems to have intensified slightly over the past 24 hours based on recon data, which supported a pressure decrease to 994 mbar. Dropsonde data ranging from 49-52 knots at the surface were reported, so the initial intensity has been set to 50 knots. Arthur is expected to continue north-northwest, recurving in the next day or so. Swells are expected to occur along the Tubaland coast over the next several days, and gale-force gusts cannot be ruled out along the coastline. As for the intensity forecast, I wouldn't be surprised if Arthur intensified slightly more at this point as it has already been an unusual storm, although as conditions are not exactly favorable for strengthening, the intensity forecast predicts Arthur to maintain its current intensity for the next day or two before weakening as it becomes post-tropical. Intensity Forecast Initial...03/1200...50 KT 12H...04/0000...50 KT 24H...04/1200...50 KT 36H...05/0000...50 KT 48H...05/1200...50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72H...06/1200...40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96H...06/1200...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM Forecaster Tuba Subtropical Storm Arthur Advisory #1 (January 2) Discussion #1 The disturbance mentioned in the previous Tropical Weather Outlooks has gained enough organization to be classified as a subtropical cyclone. Thus, Subtropical Storm Arthur has formed in the central Sousa Sea, becoming a rare January storm. in fact, Arthur is now the earliest named storm in a calendar year on record in the Tubaworld basin. Arthur's subtropical nature does not allow for accurate Dvorak estimates, but recon aircraft have measured sustained winds of 45 kt in several dropsondes, with the highest surface reading at 48 kt. As a result, Arthur's initial intensity has been set to 45 kt, or 50 mph. Arthur is expected to recurve northward, likely becoming extratropical in 48-72 hours. The intensity forecast predicts Arthur to maintain its intensity, although slight strengthening is not out of the question. Intensity Forecast Initial...02/1200...45 KT 12H...03/0000...45 KT 24H...03/1200...45 KT 36H...04/0000...45 KT 48H...04/1200...45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72H...05/1200...40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96H...06/1200...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM Forecaster Tuba Category:LckyTUBA Category:LckyTUBA Weather Center Category:Tubaworld Basin Category:Advisory archives Category:Live Seasons